Sea of Galilee forecasts & live wind

Statistical Research for Diamond by Ronen Zohar - During 3.5 months of reserve duty in endless shifts in the command center, I conducted statistical research on temperature differences at the Kinneret's meteorological stations at 10:30 AM and their impact on a reasonable surfing day at Diamond (reasonable = gust of 17.5 knots for two hours or more at the Beit Tsaida wind gauge). A total of 26 station pairs were examined (in the years 2021-2023), of which 4 pairs were examined in depth (in the years 2018-2022). Spoiler: the winner is the well-known Tzemach-Avnei Eitan pair, this time with statistical backing. The differences over 5 years (May to September) were presented in a graph and colored (according to the Beit Tsaida wind gauge) in green (reasonable day) or red (bad day). Various decision thresholds allowed for accurate calculation of the probability of surfing for two hours at Diamond (based on 5-year statistics): A second-order approximate function created a continuous line representing the statistical accuracy and risk in the 10:30 AM decision whether to go to Diamond, and the result is displayed on the KDI website every day at 10:30 AM or when the meteorological data updates on the server around 10:50 AM. Example: if the temperature difference is 5 degrees, the probability of surfing for two hours at Diamond based on past data is 80% and the probability of a bad day is 20%. Important: Comparing the accuracy of the differences sampled at 10:30 AM versus 11:30 AM proves that it is better to sample at 10:30 AM rather than at 11:30 AM.